The poignant part of this video begins at the seven minute mark. Solid midwesterners talk about their business, jobs, and town all going to hell after Wal-Mart moved in.
The stories are heartbreaking and depressingly emblematic of towns across the country. A generation --sometimes two--of hard work and hometown success are crushed. Success flips to failure within a few months. The cocoon is sliced open. The world outside is ugly, harsh, and brutal.
The people interviewed ruefully express small deviations from Republican ideology:
"I believe in free enterprise, but..."
"I'm not a communist or socialist, but..."
They don't get it. American conservatism and the Republican party exist to protect Wal-Mart and the grandly rich. Nothing else matters. The puppet masters know what to do when the base starts griping about that one inviolate issue. Turn up the propaganda. Make more anger. Create new enemies. Find conspiracies everywhere. Uncover traitors in high places. And, lie, lie, lie, lie, lie.
Sunday, July 4, 2010
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Rand Paul
Why would anyone vote for Rand Paul? The bozo can't even get the first three words in the Constitution, "We the people." He wants a nation dominated by business interests. The common good doesn't exist. Watch the video.
Paul is scary because he sounds so rational. But, of course, he is not. He is even more of a magical realist than Gabriel García Márquez. Rand Paul believes it OK for a mining company to slice the top off a mountain that it owns as long as it doesn't pollute neighboring property. The neighbors are safe because if pollution does cross the property line, then the local judge will get the mining company to stop. This is where pro-business folks from tea baggers up to Chicago school economists always get it wrong. Let's play it out. Assume some state law or local ordinance applies to property contamination by mine tailings. The mine's neighbor goes to a judge asking for help. The judge may tell the mining company to stop operations, clean up the contamination, or give the neighbor money. So, far, we are following Dr. Rand's prescription. Now, though, the train jumps the tracks. What happens if the mining company ignores the judge or, worse, does a half-assed job of cleaning up? Or, what happens if the mining company appeals the judge's decision?
It's easy to imagine the next part of the story because it has happened before. The mining company has enough money to manipulate the justice system. The lone neighbor does not. I'm not talking about bribery. Nothing that blatant. Reality is more perverse, more frustrating, and more unfair. The company stalls and stalls and stalls. There are appeals and delays. The mining company sues the neighbor for defamation or demands repayment for money lost while the mountain removal was halted. Miners are fired because, the company claims, the nasty mean-spirited, selfish bastard of a neighbor forced the sweet, benevolent, innocent mining company to stop work. The mine is likely in a small rural community. Neighbor turns against neighbor.
Pro-business, Kool-Aid drinkers insist that marketplace magic will punish companies that behave badly. Rand Paul says so in the video. The mining company, he claims, wouldn't want to pollute its neighbor. How many examples of bad -- even deadly -- behavior will it take before these fools accept reality? There was Beech-Nut selling fake apple juice for kids and babies. A Federal lab analyzed suspicious samples. The Federal government prosecuted the bad guys. Enron manipulated electric prices in California. Utility bills skyrocketed. The Enron guys were recorded laughing about grabbing money from "Aunt Millie."
Then there's Wall Street's biggest floating crap game in the world. If Rand Paul was in charge, the beautifully self-correcting financial markets would boom and bust, and to hell with everyone. We would now be in Great Depression II while Paul cheerfully channeled Herbert Hoover's ghost.
Rand Paul, teabaggers, and libertarians can't imagine government in the public interest. The biggest issue of our time -- global warming -- lies entirely outside their realm. Paul proves that free markets can't solve the problem. Coal will be mined and burned as long as it is cheap. It's true cost is hidden. We need serious government policy. Hey, Kentucky. Keep your blithering idiots at home.
P.S. Rand Paul complains about money flowing from Kentucky to Washington. Ain't true. The spigot runs in the other direction. Kentucky receives about $1.50 for every dollar paid in Federal taxes. Poor states in general benefit more than do the wealthier states. Truth is ironic. States that have voted Republican do much better than the east and west coast states that elect Democrats. Time for the teabaggers to shut up and go home.
Paul is scary because he sounds so rational. But, of course, he is not. He is even more of a magical realist than Gabriel García Márquez. Rand Paul believes it OK for a mining company to slice the top off a mountain that it owns as long as it doesn't pollute neighboring property. The neighbors are safe because if pollution does cross the property line, then the local judge will get the mining company to stop. This is where pro-business folks from tea baggers up to Chicago school economists always get it wrong. Let's play it out. Assume some state law or local ordinance applies to property contamination by mine tailings. The mine's neighbor goes to a judge asking for help. The judge may tell the mining company to stop operations, clean up the contamination, or give the neighbor money. So, far, we are following Dr. Rand's prescription. Now, though, the train jumps the tracks. What happens if the mining company ignores the judge or, worse, does a half-assed job of cleaning up? Or, what happens if the mining company appeals the judge's decision?
It's easy to imagine the next part of the story because it has happened before. The mining company has enough money to manipulate the justice system. The lone neighbor does not. I'm not talking about bribery. Nothing that blatant. Reality is more perverse, more frustrating, and more unfair. The company stalls and stalls and stalls. There are appeals and delays. The mining company sues the neighbor for defamation or demands repayment for money lost while the mountain removal was halted. Miners are fired because, the company claims, the nasty mean-spirited, selfish bastard of a neighbor forced the sweet, benevolent, innocent mining company to stop work. The mine is likely in a small rural community. Neighbor turns against neighbor.
Pro-business, Kool-Aid drinkers insist that marketplace magic will punish companies that behave badly. Rand Paul says so in the video. The mining company, he claims, wouldn't want to pollute its neighbor. How many examples of bad -- even deadly -- behavior will it take before these fools accept reality? There was Beech-Nut selling fake apple juice for kids and babies. A Federal lab analyzed suspicious samples. The Federal government prosecuted the bad guys. Enron manipulated electric prices in California. Utility bills skyrocketed. The Enron guys were recorded laughing about grabbing money from "Aunt Millie."
Then there's Wall Street's biggest floating crap game in the world. If Rand Paul was in charge, the beautifully self-correcting financial markets would boom and bust, and to hell with everyone. We would now be in Great Depression II while Paul cheerfully channeled Herbert Hoover's ghost.
Rand Paul, teabaggers, and libertarians can't imagine government in the public interest. The biggest issue of our time -- global warming -- lies entirely outside their realm. Paul proves that free markets can't solve the problem. Coal will be mined and burned as long as it is cheap. It's true cost is hidden. We need serious government policy. Hey, Kentucky. Keep your blithering idiots at home.
P.S. Rand Paul complains about money flowing from Kentucky to Washington. Ain't true. The spigot runs in the other direction. Kentucky receives about $1.50 for every dollar paid in Federal taxes. Poor states in general benefit more than do the wealthier states. Truth is ironic. States that have voted Republican do much better than the east and west coast states that elect Democrats. Time for the teabaggers to shut up and go home.
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Sub Prime
My family took a late-morning, Mothers' Day bike ride with friends in a nearby gated community. Our route passed six golf holes that are part of their two private courses. We saw just two golfers out on a gloriously warm, calm Sunday morning. Only one person was hitting balls on the driving range. I was going to joke about the club members serious devotion to their mothers. Was everyone at brunch eating eggs Benedict and drinking mimosas? But, my friend spoke first: the club's golf finances are not sustainable. Some members advocate abandoning one course. Others, including him, want to admit the public.
I hid my indignation. He expected the public -- me -- to bail out the wealthy who had invested badly. The gated paradise is two golf courses, a swimming pool, exercise facilities, tennis courts, a couple of restaurants, and an equestrian barn. But, there aren't enough residents to pay for it all. Only 1000 houses of 2000 planned have been built. Many are vacant. Some are incomplete haunted houses behind sloppy chain link fence. Rutted driveways hold piles of dirt and sand. A local bank web page lists repos for sale. Six are in the gated community. "As is" prices range from $995,000 to 1,595,000. Who knows how many others are under water. The original development company is in receivership. We were on a bicycle tour of a grandiose real estate disaster. And, the aristocracy might just have to let peasants in to play golf. Schmucks like me will maintain the residents' luxury lifestyle.
Let's talk about the obvious. The rich-folk gated community is an amplified version of the poor bastard sub-prime borrowers. Both bought in to a dream that turned bad. The gated rich, however, deny the similarities. They blame the poor. The upper class perpetrated the big fraud and expected only gains. Losses were for little people. Now, suckers themselves, they are angry and indignant. Imagine the treatment given to the paying public should the golf courses be opened to the world. Our money will be welcomed, and that's it. We will be viewed like the tourists who, for a fee, get to tour stately European estates that remain owned and occupied by nearly broke heirs and heiresses. Every unreplaced divot and unrepaired ball mark will be blamed on the Outsiders. Members will whine about slow play.
I want to see the open golf course plan implemented for one reason: to learn how much the members will charge the public. It will be a great way to measure the rich folks' self image. Several nearby Indian tribes have casino and golf course combinations that include wonderful courses priced around $80. The gated guys will, likely, want to go higher. They think they have more to offer. They don't, except for being nearer to town. Golfers won't pay much extra to save fifteen minutes of time on the road.
More as the story develops.
I hid my indignation. He expected the public -- me -- to bail out the wealthy who had invested badly. The gated paradise is two golf courses, a swimming pool, exercise facilities, tennis courts, a couple of restaurants, and an equestrian barn. But, there aren't enough residents to pay for it all. Only 1000 houses of 2000 planned have been built. Many are vacant. Some are incomplete haunted houses behind sloppy chain link fence. Rutted driveways hold piles of dirt and sand. A local bank web page lists repos for sale. Six are in the gated community. "As is" prices range from $995,000 to 1,595,000. Who knows how many others are under water. The original development company is in receivership. We were on a bicycle tour of a grandiose real estate disaster. And, the aristocracy might just have to let peasants in to play golf. Schmucks like me will maintain the residents' luxury lifestyle.
Let's talk about the obvious. The rich-folk gated community is an amplified version of the poor bastard sub-prime borrowers. Both bought in to a dream that turned bad. The gated rich, however, deny the similarities. They blame the poor. The upper class perpetrated the big fraud and expected only gains. Losses were for little people. Now, suckers themselves, they are angry and indignant. Imagine the treatment given to the paying public should the golf courses be opened to the world. Our money will be welcomed, and that's it. We will be viewed like the tourists who, for a fee, get to tour stately European estates that remain owned and occupied by nearly broke heirs and heiresses. Every unreplaced divot and unrepaired ball mark will be blamed on the Outsiders. Members will whine about slow play.
I want to see the open golf course plan implemented for one reason: to learn how much the members will charge the public. It will be a great way to measure the rich folks' self image. Several nearby Indian tribes have casino and golf course combinations that include wonderful courses priced around $80. The gated guys will, likely, want to go higher. They think they have more to offer. They don't, except for being nearer to town. Golfers won't pay much extra to save fifteen minutes of time on the road.
More as the story develops.
Friday, May 7, 2010
Cogito Ergo Sum, My Ass
Atheists rejoice! The Pythons were right. Rene Descartes was a drunken fart. Trying prove the existence of god, Descartes came up with pathetic weak 2+2=22 nonsense. Start, he said, by trying to imagine the most perfect being. An existing perfect being is more perfect than a non-existing perfect being. Hence, god must exist. WTF? I see Descartes his perfect imaginings and raise a god who reveals himself to all humans, eliminates poverty, and stops war. My imagined god is more perfect than Descartes imagined god. But, mine most obviously does not exist on three of three uberperfections. Three strikes; yer out! Quare patet propositum. NOT!
The perfection-must-exist argument is the best pro-god reasoning that philosophy has produced, and it is flawed, irrational, and -- OK, say it -- just plain stupid.
The perfection-must-exist argument is the best pro-god reasoning that philosophy has produced, and it is flawed, irrational, and -- OK, say it -- just plain stupid.
Sunday, April 11, 2010
The Masters
My warmest congratulations to Phil Mickelson on his third Masters victory. Well done, Lefty!
The Masters embodies all of my golf ambivalence. The tournament is played on an absolutely gorgeous course where I am not welcome except, perhaps, as a paying spectator. I feel both envy and disgust. The Augusta National membership list published in 2002 contains an appalling group of oil men, Wall Street con artists, and captains of failed industry. I have nothing to offer them, and they don't interest me. I can't imagine relaxing over a beer with Crawford Troy Johnson, III, the Coca-Cola king of Birmingham, and talking about rates of type II diabetes. What would Lee Raymond and I discuss? The weather? How about ExxonMobil's money paid to crackpot global warming deniers?
Clubs like Augusta exist for people with money and power to mingle with other people of money and power with expectations of gaining more money and power. Women are not invited to join because the men do not want to share. They see no benefit. There aren't enough women who can provide sufficient money or power to balance the equation.
So, I laughed when Billy Payne, Chairman of Augusta National, issued his carefully crafted critique of Tiger Woods that included:
Though I laugh at Billy Payne, I feel comfortable giving Tiger advice because it pertains to behavior on the golf course:
The Masters embodies all of my golf ambivalence. The tournament is played on an absolutely gorgeous course where I am not welcome except, perhaps, as a paying spectator. I feel both envy and disgust. The Augusta National membership list published in 2002 contains an appalling group of oil men, Wall Street con artists, and captains of failed industry. I have nothing to offer them, and they don't interest me. I can't imagine relaxing over a beer with Crawford Troy Johnson, III, the Coca-Cola king of Birmingham, and talking about rates of type II diabetes. What would Lee Raymond and I discuss? The weather? How about ExxonMobil's money paid to crackpot global warming deniers?
Clubs like Augusta exist for people with money and power to mingle with other people of money and power with expectations of gaining more money and power. Women are not invited to join because the men do not want to share. They see no benefit. There aren't enough women who can provide sufficient money or power to balance the equation.
So, I laughed when Billy Payne, Chairman of Augusta National, issued his carefully crafted critique of Tiger Woods that included:
''It is simply not the degree of his conduct that is so egregious here,'' Payne said. ''It is the fact that he disappointed all of us, and more importantly, our kids and our grandkids. Our hero did not live up to the expectations of the role model we saw for our children.''What crap! Payne as the front man for the Augusta National membership was not admonishing Tiger the golfer nor Tiger the father and husband. No. The big boys were upset with Tiger Woods the corporate entity. He was, for many, a meal ticket who, like Fredo Corleone, had been disloyal to the Family. The Men of Augusta were not pleased.
Though I laugh at Billy Payne, I feel comfortable giving Tiger advice because it pertains to behavior on the golf course:
Tiger, please stop the sullen pouting and head hanging hole after hole. I care not what you do off the course, but this on course stuff is teenage behavior and a bad habit. Hogan-up. Remember, you actually get paid to play golf. Get paid a lot of money to play golf. Imagine the rest of us who work indoor jobs, sitting in offices decorated with golf calendars, looking at computers displaying golf course screen savers. We read magazines with your picture on the cover hoping that some of the magic will transfer from the printed page. Our families have no trouble selecting our birthday and Fathers' Day gifts. They hand over beautifully wrapped golf balls, a dozen at a time, for us to top into ponds, pull-hook deep into the trees, and bounce into scrubby rough labeled "Rattlesnake Habitat." We keep our clubs in our cars hoping for days when our schedule permits a long lunch at the driving range and to be prepared for sudden-onset, fair-weather, golfers' sick day disease.
So, enough with the spoiled kid behavior. In every round of golf, only 18 shots end up in the hole. The other roughly 75% (for you; a much higher percentage for average golfers) do not. That's just basic math, not some kind of tragedy, and no reason for the self-pitying reactions.
Sunday, March 21, 2010
Blog Against Theocracy 2010
Anyone trying to insert his or her bible among the articles and amendments of the Constitution of the United States must explain why our founding fathers -- nearly all professed to be devout men -- wrote a purely secular document.
America's theocrats ignore what is written in the Constitution and, instead, see the authors' religious uniformity as evidence for a United States of Christianistan. How laughingly absurd. Read the document. It's obvious that the authors left their religion at the door. God is nowhere in our Constitution. The word religious appears just once. It is in Article IV, "no religious Test shall ever be required as a Qualification to any Office or public Trust under the United States." The word religion is found only in the establishment clause of the first amendment. Jesus, divine, divinity, Christ, Christian, holy, pray, prayer, hymn, psalm, crucifix, and cross are all, like God, excluded from the basic law of the land.
Imagine a group of believers for whom God is a constant part of their lives. These men see God's hand in everything from the magnificent to the mundane. Then, they gather to create the fundamental guiding law for a new nation. The men argue, cajole, and compromise. They pray for guidance and inspiration. They write, argue, and edit. They pray some more. Finally, the Constitution is completed and signed, and it is a godless document. Do not for an instant believe that God and religion are omitted by accident. These religious people have chosen to create secular government.
Theocracy usually implies to me Muslim mullahs or America's wannabes. This week, just in time for the Blog Against Theocracy, the Vatican demands its seat at the table. I have to respond with a forehead-smacking, "Of course!" How could I have so long overlooked the west's richest and most respected theocracy? Silly me. Because the Vatican screams out that religion and politics should not mix. Both get hurt. Both are degraded. Both are compromised. I give to you the Pope and his minions as this year's poster boys for the Blog Against Theocracy.
America's theocrats ignore what is written in the Constitution and, instead, see the authors' religious uniformity as evidence for a United States of Christianistan. How laughingly absurd. Read the document. It's obvious that the authors left their religion at the door. God is nowhere in our Constitution. The word religious appears just once. It is in Article IV, "no religious Test shall ever be required as a Qualification to any Office or public Trust under the United States." The word religion is found only in the establishment clause of the first amendment. Jesus, divine, divinity, Christ, Christian, holy, pray, prayer, hymn, psalm, crucifix, and cross are all, like God, excluded from the basic law of the land.
Imagine a group of believers for whom God is a constant part of their lives. These men see God's hand in everything from the magnificent to the mundane. Then, they gather to create the fundamental guiding law for a new nation. The men argue, cajole, and compromise. They pray for guidance and inspiration. They write, argue, and edit. They pray some more. Finally, the Constitution is completed and signed, and it is a godless document. Do not for an instant believe that God and religion are omitted by accident. These religious people have chosen to create secular government.
Theocracy usually implies to me Muslim mullahs or America's wannabes. This week, just in time for the Blog Against Theocracy, the Vatican demands its seat at the table. I have to respond with a forehead-smacking, "Of course!" How could I have so long overlooked the west's richest and most respected theocracy? Silly me. Because the Vatican screams out that religion and politics should not mix. Both get hurt. Both are degraded. Both are compromised. I give to you the Pope and his minions as this year's poster boys for the Blog Against Theocracy.
Monday, February 22, 2010
Seat 30E
The plane, Dallas to Albuquerque, was about 20 minutes from landing. 30E looked down at the snow on the ground, "Sure has been a cold winter."
"Yes it has." He and I would not agree on much again.
"At least, it stops all this bullshit about global warming."
I tried to follow my wife's recommendation. Don't challenge people directly. Instead, ask them questions about their opinions. I hoped my voice was calm. Neutral. "Why do you say that?"
"Well, it's all bullshit."
"That's not what I read in the scientific literature."
30E's eyes widened a bit. Global warming deniers don't talk about scientific work. "My grandfather was -- he named a Plains Indian tribe -- and told me that only white men think they can change the planet."
"Yeah, I bet he did."
30E put a quarter in the Fox slot machine and pulled the lever. Cherry, lemon, and, "Do you know that Al Gore bought six houses all in a row, tore 'em down and built himself a 35,000 square foot mansion?"
"I don't care about Al Gore. He doesn't publish in the scientific literature."
"But he's such a hypocrite. Just shows all these guys spout bullshit. I worked in the medical field for twenty years. Those guys who publish stuff. They're nothing but big egos."
Big egos! 30E had set up such an easy shot at the broadcast no-nothing blatherheads. Yet, I wanted to stay on the gentle path, "Scientists have egos just like everyone else. They like to see their work published. That's true. But, peer review is the best system we've got. Not perfect; but, in the long run it works pretty well."
Time for another random walk step within the right wing nut house. "Why," asked 30E, "Did they change the name from 'global warming' to 'climate change'?"
"Oh, I'm not sure. It happened during W's administration. I think Bush's people thought 'climate change' sounded like less of a problem."
I had said a magic word. Groucho's duck dropped down. "I bet you think Bush is an idiot. Well, I think that guy in there now is a real idiot."
"That guy." Voldemort. The unmentioned. "No. I don't think Bush is an idiot. He's cruel -- very cruel -- and shortsighted. Obama is extremely intelligent. " I then tried to head off digression into birth certificates, Islam, and Karl Marx, "You know that science deals with probabilities, not certainty. Global warming creates a paradox. By the time we can be 100% sure of serious consequences, it will be too late to do anything. So, what odds would motivate you to action?"
We agreed again momentarily as 30E said, "That's how science is done."
"Right. What if the science showed a 50% probability that sea level would rise by 30 feet by the end of the century? That would mean Florida under water and most coastal cities flooded. 50% odds. Look, I'm going to use a seat belt when I drive home from the airport. That's not because I expect to get into an accident. I don't. It's because there is a small probability that I will, and I am trying to protect myself against those low odds. At what point -- what odds -- would you take the climate science seriously?"
The tone and cadence of our exchange changed, I thought, to signal real conversation. 30E looked as if he were thinking about the odds of global warming consequences.
In the words of the great golfer Roberto De Vicenzo, "I am such a stupid!" 30E is a right-wing, tea bagging, tin soldier. There are no conversations, only regurgitations. There are no "what if" questions. 30E shook his head and cleared away any ambiguity. Our plane had landed. He was, literally and figuratively, back on solid ground. "They always get it wrong."
"Who?"
"Those scientists. That 'Silent Spring' woman. Because of her, DDT got banned and now 3 million African kids die each year from malaria. I did the math. She's responsible for 50 million dead children. I think it's great that she died from cancer. Served her right. All that bullshit about birds eggs. When I think of all those little black babies..." He was close to Glenn-Beckian tears.
I was unprepared. 50 million deaths seemed outrageous as did the blame heaped on Rachel Carson's grave.
My reply, "I can't imagine one environmentalist having so much power." But, 30E could. The story fit his world view. Then he moved on to condemn Paul Ehrlich's "Population Bomb." Another example he said of scientists being alarmist -- the sky is falling -- and wrong. I couldn't remember Norman Borlaug's name. The father of the green revolution, the man who revised Ehrlich's timetable.
The scientists always get it wrong. We had flown over a thousand miles in an aluminum can and arrived safely. The plane's wing tips curled up, showing a recent aerodynamic improvement that saves fuel. 30E turned on his cell phone. All of this taken for granted technology that started, for the most part, with scientists who got it right. The nearest equivalent to global warming is ozone destruction by chlorofluorocarbons. Sherry Rowland and Mario Molina, the scientists who got that right, were at first attacked personally just as 30E and his cohort attack today's climatologists. The campaign against Rowland and Molina was organized by an industry lobbying group just as the oil and coal industries fund today's anti-science campaign.
I used teh Google when I got home to learn the details of DDT and malaria in Africa. Scientific American covered the issue last May. Guess what? 30E got it wrong. Are you surprised? DDT was not banned in Africa. The UN reported at least 3950 tons of the pesticide was spray in Asia and Africa in 2007. Most was used for mosquito control. Malaria is epidemic in spite of DDT use. There are 880,000 malaria deaths a year. Most victims are children in sub-Saharan Africa. A horrendous death rate, but about 1/4 of 30E's claim. What a worthless bastard.
"Yes it has." He and I would not agree on much again.
"At least, it stops all this bullshit about global warming."
I tried to follow my wife's recommendation. Don't challenge people directly. Instead, ask them questions about their opinions. I hoped my voice was calm. Neutral. "Why do you say that?"
"Well, it's all bullshit."
"That's not what I read in the scientific literature."
30E's eyes widened a bit. Global warming deniers don't talk about scientific work. "My grandfather was -- he named a Plains Indian tribe -- and told me that only white men think they can change the planet."
"Yeah, I bet he did."
30E put a quarter in the Fox slot machine and pulled the lever. Cherry, lemon, and, "Do you know that Al Gore bought six houses all in a row, tore 'em down and built himself a 35,000 square foot mansion?"
"I don't care about Al Gore. He doesn't publish in the scientific literature."
"But he's such a hypocrite. Just shows all these guys spout bullshit. I worked in the medical field for twenty years. Those guys who publish stuff. They're nothing but big egos."
Big egos! 30E had set up such an easy shot at the broadcast no-nothing blatherheads. Yet, I wanted to stay on the gentle path, "Scientists have egos just like everyone else. They like to see their work published. That's true. But, peer review is the best system we've got. Not perfect; but, in the long run it works pretty well."
Time for another random walk step within the right wing nut house. "Why," asked 30E, "Did they change the name from 'global warming' to 'climate change'?"
"Oh, I'm not sure. It happened during W's administration. I think Bush's people thought 'climate change' sounded like less of a problem."
I had said a magic word. Groucho's duck dropped down. "I bet you think Bush is an idiot. Well, I think that guy in there now is a real idiot."
"That guy." Voldemort. The unmentioned. "No. I don't think Bush is an idiot. He's cruel -- very cruel -- and shortsighted. Obama is extremely intelligent. " I then tried to head off digression into birth certificates, Islam, and Karl Marx, "You know that science deals with probabilities, not certainty. Global warming creates a paradox. By the time we can be 100% sure of serious consequences, it will be too late to do anything. So, what odds would motivate you to action?"
We agreed again momentarily as 30E said, "That's how science is done."
"Right. What if the science showed a 50% probability that sea level would rise by 30 feet by the end of the century? That would mean Florida under water and most coastal cities flooded. 50% odds. Look, I'm going to use a seat belt when I drive home from the airport. That's not because I expect to get into an accident. I don't. It's because there is a small probability that I will, and I am trying to protect myself against those low odds. At what point -- what odds -- would you take the climate science seriously?"
The tone and cadence of our exchange changed, I thought, to signal real conversation. 30E looked as if he were thinking about the odds of global warming consequences.
In the words of the great golfer Roberto De Vicenzo, "I am such a stupid!" 30E is a right-wing, tea bagging, tin soldier. There are no conversations, only regurgitations. There are no "what if" questions. 30E shook his head and cleared away any ambiguity. Our plane had landed. He was, literally and figuratively, back on solid ground. "They always get it wrong."
"Who?"
"Those scientists. That 'Silent Spring' woman. Because of her, DDT got banned and now 3 million African kids die each year from malaria. I did the math. She's responsible for 50 million dead children. I think it's great that she died from cancer. Served her right. All that bullshit about birds eggs. When I think of all those little black babies..." He was close to Glenn-Beckian tears.
I was unprepared. 50 million deaths seemed outrageous as did the blame heaped on Rachel Carson's grave.
My reply, "I can't imagine one environmentalist having so much power." But, 30E could. The story fit his world view. Then he moved on to condemn Paul Ehrlich's "Population Bomb." Another example he said of scientists being alarmist -- the sky is falling -- and wrong. I couldn't remember Norman Borlaug's name. The father of the green revolution, the man who revised Ehrlich's timetable.
The scientists always get it wrong. We had flown over a thousand miles in an aluminum can and arrived safely. The plane's wing tips curled up, showing a recent aerodynamic improvement that saves fuel. 30E turned on his cell phone. All of this taken for granted technology that started, for the most part, with scientists who got it right. The nearest equivalent to global warming is ozone destruction by chlorofluorocarbons. Sherry Rowland and Mario Molina, the scientists who got that right, were at first attacked personally just as 30E and his cohort attack today's climatologists. The campaign against Rowland and Molina was organized by an industry lobbying group just as the oil and coal industries fund today's anti-science campaign.
I used teh Google when I got home to learn the details of DDT and malaria in Africa. Scientific American covered the issue last May. Guess what? 30E got it wrong. Are you surprised? DDT was not banned in Africa. The UN reported at least 3950 tons of the pesticide was spray in Asia and Africa in 2007. Most was used for mosquito control. Malaria is epidemic in spite of DDT use. There are 880,000 malaria deaths a year. Most victims are children in sub-Saharan Africa. A horrendous death rate, but about 1/4 of 30E's claim. What a worthless bastard.
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