Seat 30E

The plane, Dallas to Albuquerque, was about 20 minutes from landing. 30E looked down at the snow on the ground, "Sure has been a cold winter."

"Yes it has." He and I would not agree on much again.

"At least, it stops all this bullshit about global warming."

I tried to follow my wife's recommendation. Don't challenge people directly. Instead, ask them questions about their opinions. I hoped my voice was calm. Neutral. "Why do you say that?"

"Well, it's all bullshit."

"That's not what I read in the scientific literature."

30E's eyes widened a bit. Global warming deniers don't talk about scientific work. "My grandfather was -- he named a Plains Indian tribe -- and told me that only white men think they can change the planet."

"Yeah, I bet he did."

30E put a quarter in the Fox slot machine and pulled the lever. Cherry, lemon, and, "Do you know that Al Gore bought six houses all in a row, tore 'em down and built himself a 35,000 square foot mansion?"

"I don't care about Al Gore. He doesn't publish in the scientific literature."

"But he's such a hypocrite. Just shows all these guys spout bullshit. I worked in the medical field for twenty years. Those guys who publish stuff. They're nothing but big egos."

Big egos! 30E had set up such an easy shot at the broadcast no-nothing blatherheads. Yet, I wanted to stay on the gentle path, "Scientists have egos just like everyone else. They like to see their work published. That's true. But, peer review is the best system we've got. Not perfect; but, in the long run it works pretty well."

Time for another random walk step within the right wing nut house. "Why," asked 30E, "Did they change the name from 'global warming' to 'climate change'?"

"Oh, I'm not sure. It happened during W's administration. I think Bush's people thought 'climate change' sounded like less of a problem."

I had said a magic word. Groucho's duck dropped down. "I bet you think Bush is an idiot. Well, I think that guy in there now is a real idiot."

"That guy." Voldemort. The unmentioned. "No. I don't think Bush is an idiot. He's cruel -- very cruel -- and shortsighted. Obama is extremely intelligent. " I then tried to head off digression into birth certificates, Islam, and Karl Marx, "You know that science deals with probabilities, not certainty. Global warming creates a paradox. By the time we can be 100% sure of serious consequences, it will be too late to do anything. So, what odds would motivate you to action?"

We agreed again momentarily as 30E said, "That's how science is done."

"Right. What if the science showed a 50% probability that sea level would rise by 30 feet by the end of the century? That would mean Florida under water and most coastal cities flooded. 50% odds. Look, I'm going to use a seat belt when I drive home from the airport. That's not because I expect to get into an accident. I don't. It's because there is a small probability that I will, and I am trying to protect myself against those low odds. At what point -- what odds -- would you take the climate science seriously?"

The tone and cadence of our exchange changed, I thought, to signal real conversation. 30E looked as if he were thinking about the odds of global warming consequences.

In the words of the great golfer Roberto De Vicenzo, "I am such a stupid!" 30E is a right-wing, tea bagging, tin soldier. There are no conversations, only regurgitations. There are no "what if" questions. 30E shook his head and cleared away any ambiguity. Our plane had landed. He was, literally and figuratively, back on solid ground. "They always get it wrong."

"Who?"

"Those scientists. That 'Silent Spring' woman. Because of her, DDT got banned and now 3 million African kids die each year from malaria. I did the math. She's responsible for 50 million dead children. I think it's great that she died from cancer. Served her right. All that bullshit about birds eggs. When I think of all those little black babies..." He was close to Glenn-Beckian tears.
I was unprepared. 50 million deaths seemed outrageous as did the blame heaped on Rachel Carson's grave.

My reply, "I can't imagine one environmentalist having so much power." But, 30E could. The story fit his world view. Then he moved on to condemn Paul Ehrlich's "Population Bomb." Another example he said of scientists being alarmist -- the sky is falling -- and wrong. I couldn't remember Norman Borlaug's name. The father of the green revolution, the man who revised Ehrlich's timetable.

The scientists always get it wrong. We had flown over a thousand miles in an aluminum can and arrived safely. The plane's wing tips curled up, showing a recent aerodynamic improvement that saves fuel. 30E turned on his cell phone. All of this taken for granted technology that started, for the most part, with scientists who got it right. The nearest equivalent to global warming is ozone destruction by chlorofluorocarbons. Sherry Rowland and Mario Molina, the scientists who got that right, were at first attacked personally just as 30E and his cohort attack today's climatologists. The campaign against Rowland and Molina was organized by an industry lobbying group just as the oil and coal industries fund today's anti-science campaign.

I used teh Google when I got home to learn the details of DDT and malaria in Africa. Scientific American covered the issue last May. Guess what? 30E got it wrong. Are you surprised? DDT was not banned in Africa. The UN reported at least 3950 tons of the pesticide was spray in Asia and Africa in 2007. Most was used for mosquito control. Malaria is epidemic in spite of DDT use. There are 880,000 malaria deaths a year. Most victims are children in sub-Saharan Africa. A horrendous death rate, but about 1/4 of 30E's claim. What a worthless bastard.