Krugman's Konundrum

I went to a meeting hosted by a firm that specializes in helping sell other companies.  The presentation was surprisingly good and informative.  And, I was not surprised or discomforted that 1/3 of the presentation was a sales pitch for the company that hosted the event. The talk was free; I went in assuming they were looking for new clients.  

No.  I was bothered by the right-wing snippets included in the presentation.  Accepted-as-gospel fallacies about economics, finance, and recent history.  For example, did you know that social security is broke?  The so-called "lock box" is filled by $70 trillion in IOUs.  The US is printing lots of money, and that is debasing our currency.  No wonder that no one else but the US government is willing to buy our debt.  China, India, and Brazil are all taking a pass on our treasury bills.  And, income tax!  Whoo boy!  Here, my friends, is a facsimile of the very first 1040 form that was sent out by the IRS in 1913 and remained unchanged for 20 years.  One page and a flat, 1% tax.  Eminently fair.  John Rockefeller and my grandfather at a sewing machine were treated equally.  Nothing more democratic than that!  Now, the IRS code is bloated to thousands of pages that get changed every year.  Oh, and here is a quote from James Madison in which Madison rejected the idea of a national income tax.  Jimmy knew that governments would just squander the money.  And, he was right!

And that crash of 2008?.  All caused because that year 80% of mortgages -- all forced upon the lenders by Congress -- went to subprime borrowers.  And, when they defaulted, the economy went kablooey.  

We also learned that now is the greatest time ever for people to sell their companies.  It is a true sellers' market.  Interest rates are at 70 year lows.  Capital gain taxes are low.  Companies looking for acquisitions are flush with cash because they've had nothing to spend it on since 2008.  Europeans think US companies are bargains because the euro is strong compared to the dollar.  Why, just compare today's economic environment with the 1980's when interest rates on 10 yr treasuries were at 21%.  Back then, it was tough to find someone willing to take a risk on a buying a small company when they could earn a 21% return, risk free and backed by thefullfaithandcredit of these United States. I was too polite to ask why conservatives love them some Ronnie Reagan who oversaw that awful business climate and despise the Socialist Kenyan Muslim Usurper. 

The biggest mystery of all.  How is it possible for so many money guys to believe the right wing nonsense?  This passion for political dogma over facts has got to lose them money.  I have experienced two-score and more years of listening to ignorati making ludicrous false claims about science.  I have met physicists who dismiss evolution; but, I can't find any other examples of people who remain so steadfastly loyal to nonsense within their supposed areas of expertise.   What is going on?

Wake Me When It's Over

I am a few chapters in to James Risen's, "Pay Any Price: Greed, Power, and Endless War."  Ho, ho, ho, ho, ho.  There's the story of Dennis Montgomery who conned DoD and the CIA with software that could detect and decode messages from Al Qaeda hidden in Al Jezeera's bottom-of-the-screen logo displayed during their broadcasts.  Montgomery literally got rich by watching TV.  All he needed was a big screen television, a computer, and a few credulous connections within Nevada and DC.  No one could make this stuff up.  Members of Team Montgomery included the aptly-named Congressman Jerry Lewis.  Did all these clowns use Scott Joplin ring tones?   

When the first set of deals soured, Montgomery found a new billionaire sugar-momma who made a connection to Jack Kemp and, through him, to the White House.  Surprisingly, one of Cheney's aides was the only person in Washington who demanded source code for evaluation before diverting a palette of C-notes out of the river of money that flowed from the NJ Fed to Baghdad and into Montgomery's bank account.  The software also failed the Israeli's sniff test.

For those of you under 50, Kemp was a quarterback for the Buffalo Bills, Republican Congressman, Housing Secretary, and failed VP candidate in 1996.  He was a member of the fancy-schmancy, private, Wyoming ski resort owned by the billionaire sugar-momma and her soon-to-be ex-husband.  Dennis Montgomery best skill was finding a mark within that exclusive realm, where money and connections far exceed intellect and facts.   

Blame the Victim: Cancer Edition

H disclosed to my wife that he is committing slow suicide – or not – by treating his prostate cancer with diet.  A naturopathic fraud cured H's wife of some long term ailment.  Obviously, the naturopath is the best choice for treating the prostate cancer that H may or may not be there.  H is certain of the diagnosis and certain that the diet is beneficial.  I am the skeptic.  Diagnosis and follow-up were based entirely on prostate-specific antigen (PSA) blood tests and measurements of "liver function."  

PSA tests don't work. It was a good idea that failed. High rates of false positives and false negatives. The K-Y jellied gloved hand digital exam is the most reliable screening test available.

My wife asked H about the naturopath's success rate with prostate cancer.  Oh to be a shameless fraud! Diet-based cancer cures are just like abstinence-only contraception. H explained that the method succeeds for people who are 100% faithful to the regimen. The treatment can't fail the patient; but the patient can fail the treatment. (I need to translate that into Latin.) Blame the victim.  We learned all about that scam when another friend died after treating his prostate cancer with tanker loads of carrot juice plus cabbage juice chasers.  After the cancer killed him, his wife found a hidden Spam stash.  Aha! She just knew he had been cheating on his diet.  And, there was the evidence.  I wonder if his death certificate reads "cancer" or "Spam."

H's wife elaborated on the healthy diet theory to my wife.  The naturopath believes that good food crucial to good health.  But, don't cancer cells benefit just as much -- if not more -- from nutrition?  What is the saying, "Feed a cold and starve a fever" or vice versa or "Feed a cold and starve a cancer."

Back in the Saddle, Again

OMG.  Over a year since the last post!  You would think I took a vow of silence.  But, you would be wrong.  You might even think I devoted myself to 365+ days of non-stop golf.  But, you would be wrong, although I award extra credit to those kind thoughts.  Instead, the real answer is a combination of too much work and slow writing.  My post topics transit quickly from current events to history before I hit "PUBLISH."  Maybe I can stick with a Jewish New Year resolution to more frequent, brief blog posts.  Why not?

My wife printed a NY Time Magazine article from July 28 titled, "Why Do Americans Stink at Math?"  I got through half a dozen paragraphs.  Make math interesting.  Get students to investigate ideas instead of droning at them and assigning repetitive homework.  Yeah.  So?  The educational stench covers all topics.  English, history, science.  Even in our sports-obsessed culture, phys ed is short shrifted.  Foreign languages, art, music?  Feh.

Which bring's me to Paul Krugman's latest theme expressed in his NYT columns and blog that explores the mystery of the unrepentant.  Why is it, he ponders in a repeating excess of  spilled electrons, that economists whose ideas failed miserably post-2008 continue to defend those ideas against Terabytes of data?  PK has it wrong.  People rarely change their minds about anything. Most ideas and opinions are simple prejudices: limbic beliefs based on nonsensical pre-conceptions. Intellectual arguments are ineffectual tools.  We are emotional beings, and emotion trumps intellect every time.